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Rising interest rates could reduce lump-sum pension payouts

Steven Pope, CFA, CFP®, Senior Director – Ameriprise Financial

AN INVESTMENT RESEARCH GROUP PUBLICATION

Sept. 16, 2022

Key Points

  • Rising interest rates generally have a negative impact on asset values. This also applies to the lump-sum payout option available to some defined benefit pension participants.
  • Given the dramatic increase in interest rates this year, many participants that are nearing their desired retirement age could soon see that their lump-sum distribution payouts are lower than they were just one year earlier.
  • Understandably this scenario leaves participants with many questions. As a first step, participants should contact their pension benefit provider and request details of their specific benefit amounts. Next, Ameriprise Financial advisors stand ready to help participants make the best decision for their retirement goals.

Many employees today participate in a defined benefit retirement plan. A key feature of this benefit type allows some participants to choose, at the point of retirement, to either receive the vested benefit amount in a single lump-sum payout or through a series of payments over time.

Since choosing between these two payment options is often permanent and irreversible, making a thoughtful and informed decision is key for the participant.

Complicating matters in this decision-making process today, however, is rising interest rates. Particularly as it relates to the value a participant receives under the lump-sum distribution option.

In short, rising interest rates typically have a negative impact on asset values. This is due to the way present value is calculated for an asset. The economic principal, known as ‘discounted cash flow’, states that the current value of a financial asset is the present value of all future cash flows. Simply put, this means that the way asset values are determined is by discounting all future cash flows back to present time, using a stated discount rate (an interest rate).

Since future cash flows are reduced by the discount rate, a higher discount rate will result in a lower present value of an asset. The opposite is also true. A lower discount rate leads to a higher present value.

Consider the following example of this concept. Assuming a 4% discount rate, a participant would be indifferent between receiving $1,000/month for the next 10 years (a total of $120,000 over time) or $98,770 today. However, if the discount rate is increased to 6% the participant would accept receiving $90,073 today (roughly 9 percent less) or the same fixed payment of $1,000/month for the next 10 years. Intuitively, what the math behind these calculations is suggesting is that a participant receiving a lump-sum payout will be able to reinvest these assets at prevailing interest rates. Thus, at higher interest rates, less initial principal is required to generate future cash flows and at lower interest rates, more initial capital will be required. 

In 2022 interest rates are dramatically higher than a year prior as the economy wrestles with elevated inflation. For example, the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond, which acts as a common benchmark rate for the economy, has more than doubled this year, starting the year at 1.24% and closing at 3.41% on September 14, 2022. Furthermore, specific to defined benefit retirement plans, a blend of corporate bond yields is commonly used to calculate lump-sum payout amounts. Importantly, these corporate yields are typically higher than those on Treasury bonds with similar maturities.

Stark yield increases have not only increased borrowing costs for many consumers and businesses across the economy, but they may have notably caused a reduction in lump-sum payouts for participants in defined benefit plans. Many plan participants, especially those nearing or at their desired retirement age, could soon see their lump-sum value fall should interest rates move higher or retirement plan calculations catch up with current market levels.

Understandably, participants will have questions about their course of action. Including:

  • Does it make more sense to take a reduced lump-sum from my pension or receive the annuity amount over time?
  • Can I still afford to retire on this lump-sum value?
  • What interest rate and inputs are used to calculate my specific lump-sum payout, and how likely are these inputs to change over the next year?

These are important questions, and your Ameriprise Financial advisor is uniquely equipped to guide you through this important decision-making process. As a plan participant your first step is to gather the necessary information. Contact your pension benefit provider and ask about the details of your specific benefit amounts. Once equipped with this information, an Ameriprise Financial advisor stands ready to discuss the path that best aligns to your retirement goals.

This information is provided only as a general source of information and is not intended to be the primary basis for investment decisions. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell the securities mentioned and should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of an individual investor. Please seek the advice of a financial advisor regarding your particular financial concerns.
Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ and CFP® certification mark (with plaque design) logo in the U.S.
A rise in interest rates may result in a price decline of fixed-income instruments held by the fund, negatively impacting its performance and NAV. Falling rates may result in the fund investing in lower yielding debt instruments, lowering the fund’s income and yield. These risks may be heightened for longer maturity and duration securities.
The 10-year Treasury bond is a debt obligation issued by the United States government with a maturity of 10 years upon initial issuance.
Investment products are not insured by the FDIC, NCUA or any federal agency, are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by any financial institution, and involve investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value.
Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC. Member FINRA and SIPC.

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