2020 U.S. election impacts
Historically, presidential election cycles can influence stock prices over the near-term. This fall, COVID-19 trends and distinct policy proposals from President Trump and Former Vice President Biden could have implications for the economy, taxation and stock market longer-term. The Ameriprise Investment Research Group provides balanced, strategic insights that can help you put current conditions into perspective within a long-term investment portfolio.
Evaluating the candidate platforms
Evaluating Biden's plan for America
Former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign team released several tax and spending proposals. Together, they supply a detailed picture of the policy direction he would take. This report from the Ameriprise Investment Research Group provides a summary of Biden’s proposals and outlines several potential investment implications.
Trump administration priorities for a second term
President Trump renewed the Republican policy platform from 2016, continuing work that has implications for the U.S. economy and markets. He also issued 50 core priorities for a second term. This report from the Ameriprise Investment Research Group summarizes implications for the economy, taxation and capital markets.
Strategic investor insights for presidential election cycles
In an effort to identify discernable market patterns, much attention has been paid over the years to the so-called presidential cycle of average annual stock market returns. Read our summary of historical election-cycle market performance and stock-price volatility. We also highlight trends for the U.S. economy, deficit spending and market performance during various political cycles.
Election year market volatility
Market volatility tends to rise in the fall during both election years and non-election years. However, election years tend to have higher volatility in the spring as voters participate in primaries, and there are often a number of candidates running for office. Interestingly volatility in election years tends to be lower in the summer, as the presidential field typically narrows.
Sources: Bloomberg, Standard and Poor’s. S&P 30 day volatility during election years based on calendar month. Data as of 03/31/2020, beginning in 1946. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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