During the final days of 2017, sweeping new tax legislation was passed by Congress and signed into law by President Trump. The new law contains material changes to the tax code for both individuals and businesses.
In our view, the legislation is likely to influence economic activity via two primary avenues:
The federal government’s non-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimates the new law should leave approximately $136 billion more in the hands of consumers and corporations in the 2018 fiscal year (which ends September 30), and $280 billion more in the 2019 fiscal year. Much of this money will likely be spent, thus stimulating economic activity.
Prior to the legislation’s passage, we forecasted the U.S. economy to expand at a 2.4% rate in 2018 (after subtracting inflation) versus last year’s pace of 2.3%. Given the new, lower tax rates most consumers and corporations will pay (with no anticipated offsetting cuts in government spending), we now estimate the U.S. economy to grow by approximately 3.1% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. If achieved, 2018 could see the fastest rate of growth for the U.S. economy since 2007. Some economists suggest that the impact could be even greater due to a technical influence related to international trade.
We note, however, that stronger economic growth at a time when labor markets are already tight (the unemployment rate at the end of 2017 was just 4.1%) may add incrementally to inflation pressures. A further acceleration of inflation could entice Federal Reserve officials to hike their ultra-short interest rate targets at a faster pace than is otherwise expected, thus offsetting some of the tax law’s economic benefits.
It is possible that investors could be big winners under the new code. The corporate tax rate has been cut from 35% to 21% – an adjustment that should boost after-tax profits for most companies. Companies comprising the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were already expected to see earnings per share (EPS) growth of approximately 10% in 2018, according to consensus estimates published by the financial research firm FactSet. Analysts have been adjusting their earnings estimates higher to reflect the new, lower tax rate, and they could rise even further.
Investors could also benefit from a material increase in corporate share repurchases or higher dividend payments as companies return money held overseas back to the U.S., a process often referred to as “repatriation.”
The legislation implements a one-time tax on all previously untaxed foreign profits. The economic research firm Capital Economics estimates U.S. corporations recently held approximately $2.5 trillion in untaxed foreign capital. After the one-time tax, the U.S. will join most other industrialized nations in only taxing corporations on their domestic profits.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates the tax legislation will cost the federal government approximately $1.8 trillion in revenue over the next 10 years. Although stronger economic activity should generate incremental taxes to offset some of this cost, there’s little debate that future government debt levels are likely to be higher.
Federal officials will eventually need to address budget shortfalls via higher taxes or lower spending to avoid serious debt-related consequences.
Although we believe the tax code changes should favor economic activity and equity markets over the near-term, there are a considerable number of adjustments that could materially alter your tax situation.
Check with your financial advisor to help ensure you are well prepared for potential economic and market influences, and consult with your tax advisor to consider how your tax liability may be affected in 2018 and beyond.
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index
The S&P 500 is a basket of 500 stocks that are considered to be widely held. The S&P 500 index is weighted by market value (shares outstanding times share price), and its performance is thought to be representative of the stock market as a whole. The S&P 500 index was created in 1957 although it has been extrapolated backwards to several decades earlier for performance comparison purposes. This index provides a broad snapshot of the overall U.S. equity market. Over 70% of all U.S. equity value is tracked by the S&P 500. Inclusion in the index is determined by Standard & Poor’s and is based upon their market size, liquidity, and sector. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The views expressed in this publication reflect the personal views of the Ameriprise Financial Services analyst authoring the publication. The views expressed may change as market or other conditions change, and may differ from views expressed by other Ameriprise Financial associates or affiliates.
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Ameriprise Financial Inc. and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice. Consult with your tax advisor or attorney regarding your specific situation.
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